Context
Brûlerie Camélia is a French specialty coffee brand sold via monthly subscription. Customers receive 2 or 3 250g bags of selected-producer coffees every month. The Shopify store runs on Recharge to manage subscriptions and has about 4,200 active subscribers. Monthly recurring revenue exceeds 140,000 euros.
Subscription models are extremely sensitive to churn: every lost customer must be replaced by a new one at 45 euros average CAC. The longer a customer stays, the more profitable they become. Average subscriber lifetime is a critical KPI.
The challenge
Monthly churn sits at 9.2%, meaning 1 in 11 subscribers cancels each month. Average lifetime is 4.3 months, barely enough to recoup CAC. The team senses churn is concentrated at certain journey moments but lacks precise data.
Recharge reports show overall monthly churn but don't allow cohort analysis. It's impossible to answer key questions: at which subscription month do customers leave most? Do Meta Ads customers churn differently than Google Ads ones? Do some plans (2 vs 3 bags) retain better?
Without these insights, the team flies blind and runs generic promotions without knowing if they target the right moments.
The Fullmetrix solution
Brûlerie Camélia connects Shopify to Fullmetrix and activates the Cohorts and retention module. The full 3-year subscription history is synced and cohorts are automatically built by acquisition month.
The analysis reveals a churn peak at month 3 (16%) and a second peak at month 6 (12%). In between, months 4 and 5 have stable churn around 5%. Cohorts segmented by acquisition channel show Meta Ads customers churn 2x more than Google Ads customers at month 3.
The team activates three retention scenarios via Klaviyo. At month 2, subscribers get a fidelization message with an invitation to personalize preferences (more engagement, less churn). At month 3, a free gift (branded mug) for at-risk subscribers per the Fullmetrix score. At month 5, an upgrade offer to the 3-bag plan with -20% the first month.